remindmodel · fschreyer · Mar 4, 2026 · Mar 25, 2026 · Mar 25, 2026 · Mar 30, 2026
diff --git a/config/default.cfg b/config/default.cfg
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ cfg$regionmapping <- "config/regionmappingH12.csv"
 cfg$extramappings_historic <- ""
 
 #### Current input data revision (<mainrevision>.<subrevision>) ####
-cfg$inputRevision <- "7.88"
+cfg$inputRevision <- "7.90"
 
 #### Current CES parameter and GDX revision (commit hash) ####
 cfg$CESandGDXversion <- "a12b6355e0ac96081f79504465c61e68fd14ed48"

diff --git a/core/declarations.gms b/core/declarations.gms
@@ -131,6 +131,7 @@ vm_co2eq(ttot,all_regi)                              "total greenhouse gas emiss
 vm_co2eqMkt(ttot,all_regi,all_emiMkt)                "total greenhouse gas emissions per market measured in co2 equivalents that are subject to carbon pricing, be aware that emissions coverage of this variable depends on switch cm_multigasscen [GtCeq]"
 vm_emiAll(ttot,all_regi,all_enty)                    "total emissions by species [GtC, Mt CH4, Mt N, Mt SO2, Mt BC, Mt OC]"
 v_co2eqCum(all_regi)                                 "cumulated vm_co2eq emissions for the first budget period [GtCeq]"
+vm_emiGHG_exclLULUCF_exclBunkers(ttot,all_regi)      "total GHG emissions excl LULUCF and excl bunkers, needed for NDC targets [GtCeq]"
 
 *** sectoral emissions
 vm_emiTeDetail(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,all_enty,all_te,all_enty)  "emissions from energy technologies on supply-side (pm_emifac * PE) and demand-side (pm_emifac * FE), note: not equivalent to Emi|CO2|Energy in reporting [GtC, Mt CH4, Mt N, Mt SO2, Mt BC, Mt OC]"
@@ -184,6 +185,7 @@ q_emiCdrAll(ttot,all_regi)                           "summing over all CDR emiss
 q_balcapture(ttot,all_regi)                          "balance equation for carbon capture"
 q_balCCUvsCCS(ttot,all_regi)                         "balance equation for captured carbon to CCU or CCS or valve"
 q_ccsShare(ttot,all_regi)                            "calculate the share of captured CO2 that is stored geologically"
+q_emiGHG_exclLULUCF_exclBunkers(ttot,all_regi)       "calculate total GHG emissions excl LULUCF and excl bunkers"
 ;
 
 *** ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

diff --git a/core/equations.gms b/core/equations.gms
@@ -853,6 +853,24 @@ q_emiCap(t,regi) ..
                 vm_co2eq(t,regi) + vm_Xport(t,regi,"perm") - vm_Mport(t,regi,"perm")
                 =l= vm_perm(t,regi);
 
+
+***--------------------------------------------------
+*' Total GHG emissions excl. land-use change and excl. bunker emissions  (needed for NDC targets)
+***--------------------------------------------------
+q_emiGHG_exclLULUCF_exclBunkers(t,regi)..
+  vm_emiGHG_exclLULUCF_exclBunkers(t,regi)
+  =e=
+*** total GHG emissions excl. F-Gases and excl. LULUCF
+  vm_co2eq(t,regi) 
+*** add F-Gases, convert from MtCO2eq/yr to GtC/yr
+  + vm_emiFgas(t,regi,"emiFgasTotal") / sm_c_2_co2 / 1000
+*** subtract bunker emissions
+  - sum(se2fe(enty,enty2,te),
+      pm_emifac(t,regi,enty,enty2,te,"co2")
+      * vm_demFeSector(t,regi,enty,enty2,"trans","other") 
+    );
+
+
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------
 *** Budgets on GHG emissions (single or two subsequent time periods)
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------

diff --git a/main.gms b/main.gms
@@ -1414,6 +1414,10 @@ $setglobal cm_NDC_targetYear  2030, 2035    !! def = "2030, 2035"
 *' *  By default 2030 CO2 prices are limited to 150 USD/tCO2 in EUR, 80 USD/tCO2 in CAZ, USA, JPN and NEU, 50 USD/tCO2 in REF and MEA, 40 USD/tCO2 in LAM and CHA, 30 USD/tCO2 in OAS, 15 USD/tCO2 in IND and 10 USD/tCO2 in SSA.
 *' *  If set to "off", no CO2 price limits are applied in any region.
 $setglobal cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit  2030.EUR 150, 2030.(CAZ,USA, JPN, NEU) 80, 2030.(REF,MEA) 50, 2030.(LAM, CHA) 40, 2030.OAS 30, 2030.IND 15, 2030.SSA 10    !! def = "2030.EUR 150, 2030.(CAZ,USA, JPN, NEU) 80, 2030.(REF,MEA) 50, 2030.(LAM, CHA) 40, 2030.OAS 30, 2030.IND 15, 2030.SSA 10" 
+*' cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation "switch to determine whether CO2 price limits in NDC realization are applied only in the specified target year or also in subsequent years" [requires 45_carbonprice = NDC]
+*' *  (on): CO2 price limits are applied not only in the specified target year but also in subsequent years, with the limit increasing by 20% per year after the target year, but allowing for carbon price of at least 200$/tCO2 at minimum
+*' *  (off): CO2 price limits are only applied in the specified target year, but not in subsequent years
+$setglobal cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation  off     !! def = "off"  !! regexp = on|off
 *' cm_NDC_postTargetDevelopment            "choose assumption on co2 price trajectory after NDC target years" [requires 45_carbonprice = NDC]
 *' *  (constant):                     carbon price remains constant after the last NDC target year
 *' *  (global_conv):                  carbon price converges across regions to a global value of 100$/tCO2 by 2100

diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms
@@ -13,19 +13,19 @@ Execute_Loadpoint "input_ref" p45_taxCO2eq_bau = pm_taxCO2eq;
 pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) = p45_taxCO2eq_bau(t,regi);
 
 
-*** load NDC data
-Table f45_factorTargetyear(tall,all_regi,NDC_version,all_GDPpopScen) "Table for all NDC versions with multiplier for target year emissions vs 2015 emissions, as weighted average for all countries with quantifyable emissions under NDC in particular region [1]"
+*** load NDC emissions targets (only fraction of emissions in REMIND region from countries with NDC targets)
+Table fm_EmiTargetAbs(tall,all_regi,NDC_version,all_GDPpopScen) "Table for all NDC versions with absolute NDC emissions targets, emissions from countries without targets are not included [Mt CO2eq/yr]"
 $offlisting
 $ondelim
-$include "./modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/input/fm_factorTargetyear.cs3r"
+$include "./modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/input/fm_EmiTargetAbs.cs3r"
 $offdelim
 $onlisting
 ;
 
-Parameter p45_factorTargetyear(ttot,all_regi) "Multiplier for target year emissions vs 2015 emissions, as weighted average for all countries with quantifyable emissions under NDC in particular region [1]";
-p45_factorTargetyear(t,all_regi) = f45_factorTargetyear(t,all_regi,"%cm_NDC_version%","%cm_GDPpopScen%");
+Parameter p45_EmiTargetAbs(ttot,all_regi) "Absolute NDC emissions targets, emissions from countries without targets are not included [Mt CO2eq/yr]";
+p45_EmiTargetAbs(t,all_regi) = fm_EmiTargetAbs(t,all_regi,"%cm_NDC_version%","%cm_GDPpopScen%");
 
-display p45_factorTargetyear;
+display p45_EmiTargetAbs;
 
 Table f45_shareTarget(tall,all_regi,NDC_version,all_GDPpopScen) "Table for all NDC versions with estimated target year GHG emissions share of countries with quantifyable emissions under NDC in particular region, time dimension specifies alternative future target years [0..1]"
 $offlisting
@@ -49,6 +49,17 @@ $endif
 $offdelim
   /             ;
 
+*** --------------------------------------------------------------------------
+*** use new GAMS internal variables for total GHG excl LULUCF and excl bunkers
+
+*** overwrite BAU emissions with emissions in GAMS variable from reference GDX
+p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers(ttot,regi) = 0;
+Execute_Loadpoint 'input_ref' p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers = vm_emiGHG_exclLULUCF_exclBunkers.l;
+*** convert from GtCeq/yr to MtCO2eq/yr
+p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers(ttot,regi) = p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers(ttot,regi) * sm_c_2_co2 * 1000;
+
+*** --------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
 *** parameters for selecting NDC years
 Set t_NDC_targetYear(ttot)                          "Years for which NDC emissions targets can be applied [0 or 1]" / %cm_NDC_targetYear% /;
 Scalar p45_minRatioOfCoverageToMax                  "only targets whose coverage is this times p45_bestNDCcoverage are considered. Use 1 for only best [0..1]" /0/;

diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/input/files b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/input/files
@@ -1,2 +1,2 @@
 fm_shareTarget.cs3r
-fm_factorTargetyear.cs3r
+fm_EmiTargetAbs.cs3r
diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms
@@ -61,9 +61,15 @@ $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit%" == "off"
   loop( p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$( p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) > 0 ) ,
     pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) = min(    pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi), 
                                   p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC );
-*** after target year, CO2 price limit increases by 20%/yr
-    pm_taxCO2eq(t2,regi)$( t2.val gt t.val) = min(    pm_taxCO2eq(t2,regi),
-                                                    ( p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) * (1 + 0.2 * (t2.val - t.val)) ) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC );
+$ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation%" == "off"
+*** For the periods after the carbon price limit:
+*** If this switch is on, limit increase by 20%/yr, but ensure the CO2 price limit (cap) is at least 200$/tCO2.
+    pm_taxCO2eq(t2,regi)$( t2.val gt t.val) = min(    pm_taxCO2eq(t2,regi), 
+                                                      max(  p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) * (1 + 0.2 * (t2.val - t.val)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC,
+                                                               200 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC
+                                                      )  
+                                                  );
+$endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation
   );
 $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit
 

diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/preloop.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/preloop.gms
@@ -10,12 +10,12 @@
 *#' @equations 
 *#'  calculate level of emission target per REMIND region. It is componsed to two terms:
 *#'  1. Contribution of countries within REMIND region with NDC target: 
-*#'     share of emissions covered by NDC in particular region * REMIND NPI emissions in 2015 * (country-aggregated) relative NDC emissions target with respect to 2015
+*#'     Absolute NDC emissions target that was derived by summing the targets of all countries within the region that have NDC targets
 *#'  2. Contribution of countries within REMIND region without NDC target:
 *#'     (1 - share of emissions covered by NDC in particular region) *  REMIND NPI  emissions in target year
 p45_CO2eqwoLU_goal(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
-          p45_shareTarget(t,regi)     * p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers("2015",regi) * p45_factorTargetyear(t,regi)    !! share with NDC target
-        + (1-p45_shareTarget(t,regi)) * p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers(t,regi);                                       !! baseline for share of countries without NDC target
+          p45_EmiTargetAbs(t,regi)                                                  !! emissions target derived from countries with NDC target
+        + (1-p45_shareTarget(t,regi)) * p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_wo_bunkers(t,regi);   !! countries without NDC target are assumed to follow NPI emissions pathway
 
 display pm_taxCO2eq,p45_CO2eqwoLU_goal;